SupnWeather in plain language
What this site is, what you can do in five minutes, and what the numbers mean — no jargon until you ask for it.
What is this, in 30 seconds
Three things, no jargon. A weather engine publishes one number per airport every day — its best guess at the day's highest temperature. You can check those guesses against reality, play a free game calling the highs yourself, and read the public scoreboard that grades the engine, misses included.
Forecasts you can check. 37 airports, one centre temperature plus a range, refreshed through the day. Every evening the real high is recorded and the forecast is scored.
A game you can play. On Predict, lock your own exact-degree call before the day settles. Exact match: you win. Wins in a row build your streak on the public leaderboard.
Proof instead of promises. The scoreboards show every forecast graded against reality — including the misses. It costs nothing to look around; an optional donation footer keeps the server up.
Your first five minutes
Pick one path. Each takes minutes, and each teaches the site a different way.
A real example, end to end
One station, one day, exactly as it happened.
Seoul Incheon, September 9. At 16:00 local time the engine froze its checkpoint for the day: 26°. That number sat on the station page all afternoon as the official call.
The day's real high came in at exactly 26° — a hit. After settlement the scoreboard marked that checkpoint won, and any member who had locked 26° on Predict banked +1 streak.
Why one story proves nothing: the 16:00 checkpoints have recently landed around 87% exact-bucket across the qualifying stations — a rolling seven-day figure, so check the Scorecards page for today's number. The machine is graded on hundreds of days like this one — the scoreboard, not the story, is the evidence.
Words you'll see, in one line each
Ten terms cover 95% of the site. Everything else can wait until you're curious.
- CENTRE
- The engine's single best guess at the day's high, in degrees. Everything else exists to explain this number.
- BAND (p25–p75)
- The range the engine gives itself a 50/50 chance to land inside. Narrow means confident.
- CHECKPOINT (H08 / H12 / H16)
- The forecast frozen at 08:00, 12:00 or 16:00 station-local time. Frozen means graded: win rates are computed from checkpoints, and H16 — the day's final forecast — is the most accurate one.
- ACTUAL / SETTLED HIGH
- The real observed maximum, recorded at day end. The answer key everything is scored against.
- MAE
- Average miss, in degrees. Lower is better.
- BIAS
- Average direction of misses: positive runs warm, negative runs cold.
- BUCKET
- Exact-degree brackets like "exactly 28°". Predict calls and the engine's probability curve both settle on buckets.
- STREAK
- Your consecutive settled wins on Predict. A miss resets it to zero.
- TIER
- The engine's 0–100 grade (S≥90, A≥78, B≥64, C≥50). The trend matters more than the number.
- H16
- The 16:00 checkpoint — the last forecast of the day. When the site quotes a win rate without qualification, it's an H16 rate.
What you can and can't do
The honest version, up front.
You can
- Browse every forecast, scoreboard, chart and station page free, no account.
- Play Predict free — guests get 5 calls a day, registering claims your streak.
- Share call cards anywhere; misses publish exactly like hits.
- Watch the live trading book read-only as a member. Nothing there can be touched from the site.
You can't
- Place real trades through this site — the live book is the operator's own money.
- Change the bot, its settings, or its calibration.
- Move real money anywhere here — the demo ledgers are virtual by construction, and there is no deposit button.
Frequently asked questions
Short answers; the scoreboards hold the receipts.
How accurate are SupnWeather forecasts?
The 16:00 checkpoints — the day's final forecast — have recently landed around 87% exact-bucket across the qualifying stations — a rolling seven-day figure, so check the Scorecards page for today's number. Every forecast is graded against the settled high on the Scorecards page, misses included.
What is MAE?
Mean Absolute Error: the average miss, in degrees. Lower is better. Per-region daily and weekly MAE is published on Scorecards.
What is the H16 checkpoint?
The forecast frozen at 16:00 station-local time. Forecasts freeze at 08:00, 12:00 and 16:00; H16 is the last and most accurate one, so a win rate quoted without qualification is an H16 rate.
Is Predict free?
Yes. No account is needed to try — guests get 5 calls a day — and registering later claims your streak on the leaderboard.
Can I place real trades here?
No. The demo ledgers are virtual by construction with no deposit button, and the live book is the operator's own money, visible read-only to members.
Which airports are covered?
37 airports worldwide, all listed on Stations — each with its own deep page showing checkpoint history and track record.
Pages, in one line each
What each tab is for.
| Page | What it's for |
|---|---|
| Predict | Call the exact high, build a streak, climb the leaderboard. |
| Dashboard | Are we okay right now, and was yesterday good? |
| Stations | The current forecast for all 37 airports; click any station for its deep page. |
| Compare | Stack up to 4 stations: errors over time and checkpoint win rates side by side. |
| Scorecards | The same verification reports the bot delivers — win rates in plain language. |
| Engine | Tier grade and trend, accuracy pillars, station watch. The diagnostics desk. |
| Demo | Virtual paper ledgers paper-trading the forecasts. No real money can move. |
| Live | The operator's real-money book, read-only for members. |
| About the engine | Is this credible? The tier gauge and accuracy against a persistence baseline. |
| Edge Finder | Operator-only. Underpriced Polymarket buckets across all stations. |
| Login | Free member account: your picks, streak and leaderboard name live here. |
Running the bot — operators only
Everything below is machinery. Visitors can stop here.
How the machine runs (click to expand)
- DAILY CYCLE
- Checkpoints freeze at 08:00, 12:00 and 16:00 station-local; outcomes settle at day end; a calibration refit runs every morning (~09:12 UTC) and the bot restarts onto it only if a forecast actually changed.
- TRIPWIRES
- Ignore day-to-day wobble. Caution when one lane runs warm (it usually self-corrects). Act when the network-wide warm skew passes its checkpoint rule or the machinery itself reports failure on the Ops page.
- BLEND IN ONE LINE
- Centre = history-analogs plus an external prior (human TAF text or NWP model), re-weighted nightly from scored evidence. Lanes just name which prior an edition used.
- SCORING IN ONE LINE
- MAE for the centre, 25/50/25 coverage for the band, bucket-curve scorers (Brier, RPS, log-loss) for the distribution. Code changes fingerprint themselves so every fix is measured on real outcomes (code eras).
- SAFETY INVARIANTS
- Read-only website, paper-only demo (no signer exists in its path), loss breaker with manual reset, idempotent orders. The Ops page shows supervisors, task drift and restart history.